The Standard

Putin: "Grandiose" Plans for Russian Military

Russian Military Test Fires Missile

Russian President Putin has declared that he has "grandiose" plans for the Russian military including "new" nuclear capabilities and a new fleet of fighter jets that should go on active duty between 2012 and 2015.

Mr. Putin made his announcement on a phone-in interview program broadcast nationally on state-run television.

He referred specifically to strengthening the Russian "nuclear triad" of missiles, submarines and bombers.

His announcements have come on the same day that Russia test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, a military facility 800 km (500 miles) north of Moscow.

The RS-12M Topol' hit a target at a test range in Kamchatka on the Russian Pacific coast.

The Topol' has a range of 10,000 km (6,215 mi) and can carry one 550-kiloton nuclear warhead.

Russia-West Disagreements

Mr. Putin's words have come as Russia and the West appear to be growing more distant on key several international disputes.

Russia has blocked efforts by the US, France and the UK to bring tougher UN sanctions against Iran for enriching uranium despite a UN resolution calling for a halt.

President Putin has also strongly opposed the US placement of defensive missile systems in the Czech Republic and Poland.

The US has claimed the systems are solely defensive and are intended to intercept a missile from "rogue" state such as North Korea or Iran.

Mr. Putin earlier proposed a compromise missile site in Azerbaijan where US and Russian military officials would work jointly to prevent such attacks.

US military officials have evaluated the site and deemed it hopelessly out of date.

Mr. Putin said on Thursday,"If a decision [about the sites] is made without taking Russia's opinion into account, then we will certainly take steps in response to ensure the security of Russian citizens.”

Russia already announced this summer that it will withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

Mr. Putin has also hinted that Russia will nix missile treaties if the US goes ahead with missile bases as planned.

Experts suggest he has his sights on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

Washington has offered no considerable public response to Mr. Putin's remarks.

Russian GazProm Threatens Ukraine With Gas Cuts

Threats Come On Heels of Ukrainian Elections

State-owned gas giant GazProm announced Tuesday it would cut gas supplies to the Ukraine if a $1.3 billion dollar debt was not paid by the end of the month.

The announcement came after elections in the Ukraine seem to have paved the way for a coalition in parliament between blocs headed by Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko.

Such a coalition would see Ms. Tymoshenko replace Viktor Yanukovich as prime minister.

Mr. Yanukovich and his Regions party are widely seen as pro-Russian.

Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yushchenko led the Orange Revolution in 2004 and 2005. They are generally seen as pro-West.

General Confusion

The GazProm announcement and its aftermath have caused general confusion.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian gas company NaftoGaz told the AFP: "We don't understand what GazProm means. We don't understand where [the sum] came from."

GazProm has said that the debts have been piling up since June.

The situation was later complicated on Wednesday when GazProm announced a settlement after a meeting with ministers from the Yanukovich government.

Few details were disclosed.

GazProm said merely that the current government would "take control" of the problem.

Russian Interference

Many analysts have speculated that the GazProm announcement was an effort by the Kremlin to complicate the transition to power for Ms. Tymoshenko and her pro-west party.

GazProm is state-owned and its senior management is comprised of ex-KGB officers believed to have close links with President Putin.

The government has acknowledged the geopolitical leverage it holds with its energy industry in its domestic campaigns for nationalism.

A history-teaching manual endorsed this summer by the Kremlin read in part:

"The development of the global political process will depend on Russia's decision on where to send its oil and gas. It's enough to deprive a rival of energy for development – in the geopolitical battle, such an act could be a defining moment."

Putin To Preserve Power

Putin As Prime Minister? Likely.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted a proposal on Monday to lead United Russia's party list in the upcoming parliamentary elections in December.

Mr. Putin said also that becoming prime minister was "a realistic proposal."

Mr. Putin is near the end of his second presidential term and prevented by the Russian constitution from running for a consecutive third.

The New Path to Power

Mr. Putin holds a tight grip on power and many analysts speculated that he would remain in office as president after orchestrating a constitutional change.

The announcement on Monday suggests Mr. Putin has decided on another strategy for preserving his power.

United Russia was formed in part by Mr. Putin in 2001. It is the dominant party in the Duma, backed by Russia's political and economic elite.

A 50% majority in December elections was all but guaranteed before the recent events.

Mr. Putin's 70% popularity rating should help the party secure a two-thirds majority.

Such a dominating number would give the party the legal means to alter the powers of the prime minister and president.

This would effectively give Mr. Putin full scope over his own powers.

 

 

Week In Review

Climate Change, A French Hard Line on Iran, and Kazakh Oil

**** Former US President Bill Clinton said that bold investment in technologies for combating global warming  would help US growth.

Mr. Clinton called for US companies to mobilize economic resources on a level not seen since World War II.

****Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon opened the UN Conference on Climate Change with calls for world leaders to take responsibility for reducing carbon emissions.

US President George W. Bush was notably absent.

****France reiterated its tough stance on Iran's nuclear program.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy told the UN General Assemnly that the possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapon was an  "unacceptable risk" that threatens international stability.

****Western companies cringed as Kazakhstan looked set to pass a law that gives the government authority to change or break contracts with foreign energy firms unilaterally.

Week in Review

Bold Moves in Europe, A Bank Run, and A Falling Dollar

****In the UK, hundreds of customers pulled their savings out of Northern Rock after the bank accepted an emergency loan from the Bank of England to raise short-term cash levels.

British depositors relaxed after the UK government announced it would insure all deposits, staving off a crisis.

****French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner urged France to prepare for war with Iran before softening his tone a day later in Moscow.

The sly FM stressed that the French position was 'negotiate, negotiate, negotiate' and emphasized that military intervention was a worst-case scenario.

****The European Commission announced energy market reforms that will make it all but impossible for Russian state-owned giant GazProm to buy into the European energy market.

The moves are another example of EU strength in the face Russian attempts to use its leverage over natural gas supplies to win geopolitical concessions.

****The dollar fell to an all-time low against the Euro on the heels of a .5% interest rate cut in the US. Longer-term causes for the dollar's decline appear set in place, and the increasing weakness looks to become a larger geopolitical issue in the weeks ahead.

EU Energy Proposals to Box Out Russia

Reforms Force Companies To "Unbundle"

The European Commission has put forth energy reform proposals that will make it more difficult for state-owned Russian energy companies to buy into the European energy market.

The reforms aim to break up monopoly control many companies have over the supply and transmission of natural gas.

According to the proposal, European companies who both supply and transport natural gas through pipelines will have to either sell off their supply or transport wing or lease its transport networks to a fully independent operator. Foreign companies will be subject to the same rules.

The reforms are partially aimed at increasing competition within the EU energy markets and giving EU citizens better prices on energy.

Its wider geopolitical shot, however, is at GazProm, the Russian state-run energy monopoly that supplies 25% of Europe's natural gas.

GazProm controls all meaningful natural gas production in Russia and owns the vast majority of transport lines out to Europe. In recent years, it has been accused of abruptly raising natural gas bills up to 400% and cutting off supply to countries in Eastern Europe for political reasons.

It has pursued a clear strategy of buying deeper into the European energy market.

Over the summer, fears rose in the United States and Europe that the state-run GazProm is poised to use energy as a weapon to extract political concessions from Europe in more aggressive ways.

In July, the Russian Duma gave all GazProm employees the legal right to carry firearms.

Later that month, the Russian government published a manual for history teachers that read in part:

"The development of the global political process will depend on Russia's decision on where to send its oil and gas. It's enough to deprive a rival of energy for development – in the geopolitical battle, such an act could be a defining moment."

 

France Softens Iran War Talk

Kouchner For Negotiation

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner sought to cool talk about French military intervention in Iran after announcing Sunday that "it was necessary to prepare" for war if negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program fell through.

Mr. Kouchner emphasized yesterday: "The worst situation would be war... And to avoid the worst, the French position is very clear: negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, and work with our European friends on credible sanctions."

Iran's refusal to abandon its nuclear program has spawned the talk of UN sanctions among American and European powers, but it generally acknowledged that Russia and China use the threat of veto to water down European and American proposals.

Iran claims the program is for civilian purposes only.

Many Western nations fear it will eventually use uranium and acquired scientific expertise to develop a nuclear weapon.

On Monday, Mr. Kouchner broached the idea of EU-wide sanctions against Iran if the UN Security Council could not agree on an adequately strong resolution.

Russia responded to Mr. Kouchner's bolder comments with concern.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "We are worried by reports that there is serious consideration being given to military action in Iran. That is a threat to a region where there are already grave problems in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Week In Reivew: International

**** Chinese censhorship officials announced that two cartoon characters would begin popping up on web users computers screens every half an hour to discourage Chinese citizens from visiting websites that might 'disrupt social stability.'

**** The European Central Bank reduced its forecast for Eurozone growth.

**** The Bank of England and UK government officials publicly criticized banks for the irresposible lending and borrowing practices that made them susceptible to the sub-prime crisis. The BofE announced a 'tough love' approach, pledging it would not cut rates and let the market purify itself, while making some concessions and offering bail out capital.

**** Russia tested what it called the largest non-nuclear bomb in the world to top off a long, hot summer during which it withdrew from a Cold War arms treaty, renewed long-range bomber flights over the North Atlanitc, and introdcued anti-western history textbooks.

**** In other Russia news, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko implicated the Russian government in the election-year poisoning he suffered in 2004.

Russia Tests 'World's Biggest' Non-Nuclear Bomb

The Russian military has tested what it described as the world's largest non-nuclear explosive device.

It contained more than seven tons of TNT and its explosive power was described by Russian military officials as comparative to a nuclear weapon without any radioactive effects.

Russian state TV carried the pictures and trumpeted that the bomb's power was partially due to innovations in explosives nanotechnology.

It has received the nickname "Father of All Bombs" from its Russian designers, a clear geopolitical middle-finger to the United States, who tested the "MoAB" or "Mother of All Bombs" shortly before the invasion of Iraq.

One expert characterized this as a 'statement' of an emerging Russia.

Reflecting back over the past few months, one might put the question as to what is beyond such 'statements' and begin to look closely at the changing reality.

Russia recently renewed Cold War style bomber flights that have seen Russian bombers flying over the Atlantic. These flights have forced the Norwegian and British air forces to scramble fighter jets serveral times this summer.

In July, President Putin announced the suspension of a major Cold War arms treaty that limited the number of heavy weaponry the Russian military could deploy between the Urals and the borders of Eastern Europe.

These political and military moves are in addition to steps the Russian government has taken to encourage ultra-nationalist sentiment among the Russian people.

The Kremlin actively supports the youth group Nashi, whose nationalist fervor and military style organization is reminiscent of the Hitler Youth.

President Putin also recently gave his endorsement to standardized history-teaching manuals that describe the US and Great Britain as 'totalitarian' regimes and adversaries.

It might do everyone well to ponder the fact that the Soviet Union was never a super power in real economic terms, it was merely a super power because it decided to be one.

This next generation of Russian power is far better funded and has genuine public public support.

I've lived there. I know.

Russia Implicated in Yushchenko Poisoning

You may or may not recall that nearly three years ago pro-Western Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned around election time.

The poison used was TCDD, the most lethal type of dioxin.

The change in Mr. Yushchenko's face gives a glimpse of the poison's effects.

Well, the investigation into the poisoning has hit a bit of a snag, as it seems a Russian laboratory is refusing to give samples of the dioxin it produces.

Two other laboratories outside of Russia have cooperated, Mr. Yushchenko claims.

And oh, by the by, Russian President Vladimir Putin was backing Yushenko's rival at the time.

It's also commonplace for the Russian press to present the election of Yushchenko as an American conspiracy.

This, on top of the fact that Russia has refused to return to the Ukraine three people wanted for questioning in relation to the poisoning, has Mr. Yushchenko a bit suspicious.

When asked whether there was a state role played in the attack, Mr. Yushchenko answered: "It was not a private act."

We'll, of course, wait patiently for the Russian authorities to cooperate and the facts to present themselves.

But I'll just say for now that I may (perhaps) be suggesting it wasn't a non-Russian affair.