The Standard

Lebanon May Face No Government, Civil War

Divided Politicians Unable to Reach Consensus

The deeply divided Lebanese parliament has postponed a vote to elect President Emile Lahoud's successor for the fourth time since September.

The vote has been delayed until Friday -- the day Mr. Lahoud's term will end.

Fears of Civil War

Observers fear that the Western-backed coalition and pro-Syrian opposition will fail to find a compromise candidate by the end of the week, leaving Lebanon without a head of government.

The pro-Western governing coalition has threatened to elect its own president if the opposition fails to support a consensus candidate.

The leading opposition party Hezbollah is pushing for a candidate friendly to its Syrian and Iranian backers.

Hezbollah has hinted that it will form its own rival government if an anti-Syrian president is elected to power.

The party has military and social development wings that enjoy broad popular support. 

Many fear the formation of a rival Hezbollah government might provoke a civil war.

Even if the rival parties succeed in electing a new president they will likely walk a rough path toward compromise when choosing the next prime minister and forming a government.

The Larger Game

The political crisis in Lebanon has been shaped by the regional struggle for power between the United States, Israel, moderate Arab countries, Syria and Iran.

According to Paul Salem of the Carnegie Endowment, the political deadlock is the result of a "confrontation between states taking place in Lebanon."

The trap for political turmoil was set nearly three years ago when Western governments linked the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri to Syria.

The car-bombing and subsequent accusations triggered massive street demonstrations that forced Syria to end its occupation of Lebanon.

Iran Hands Over Weapons Blueprint

Iran Gives IAEA Warhead Blueprints

Iran handed over a nuclear weapons blueprint to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Thursday, which details how to mold uranium into hemispheres used for making nuclear weapons.

The IAEA requested the documents four years ago after finding them accidentally during an inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iranian officials said they received the plans unsolicited from AQ Khan's nuclear smuggling network, and that they do not indicate Iran's intention to build an atomic warhead.

The blueprint arrived ahead of an IAEA report due this week that will evaluate Iranian cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

The report will most likely confirm Iran is continuing to enrich uranium in defiance of a UN Resolution.

British PM's Speech Signals United Western Bloc

Western powers have given the impression over that last several days that they will push harder on Iran as a united bloc.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown gave a speech on Monday suggesting the UK would help bring tougher EU sanctions against Iran if Russia and China continued blocking a third round of sanctions in the UN Security Council.

Britain, France, the US, Russia and China sit on the council and each country has the power to veto potential sanctions.

Mr. Brown's Monday speech places Britain in line with French and US leaders who have endorsed EU sanctions regardless of the outcome at the UN.

A US envoy was quick to call the hand-over of the blueprints "selective cooperation."

The concern, it seems, is that Russia and China may point to the documents as evidence of Iranian transparency and continue to prevent the security council from taking action.

Olmert Probe May Have Consequences for Peace Conference

Police Raid 20 Locations Across Israel in Olmert Probe

Over 100 police officers raided offices across Israel Sunday morning, seizing evidence in connection with several criminal investigations involving Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Police were looking for documents relating to Olmert's purchase of his home in Jerusalem.

He is suspected of buying the property at a discounted price in return for helping the contractor obtain building permits.

Olmert is also under two separate investigations involving improper political favors during his term as trade and industry minister between 2003 and 2005.

The Prime Minister has denied any wrongdoing.

Consequences for Peace Summit

The police sweep occurred just as Olmert's popularity had begun to rebound after plummeting during last year's inconclusive war against Hezbollah.

A criminal indictment of the Prime Minister would seriously jeopardize the peace summit scheduled to take place this month in Annapolis, Maryland.

Even if a peace deal were to be reached, the Israeli leader's vulnerability would make implementing an agreement difficult.

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, has vowed to undo Olmert's coalition in the Knesset if final-status issues -- Jerusalem, refugees, borders -- are discussed at Annapolis.

Consequently, Israeli and American leaders have begun dampening expectations ahead of the peace summit. 

The lowered hopes come despite Olmert's announced plan to release 400 Palestinian prisoners by late November as a gesture of good will.

UN Head: Melting Glaciers "Emergency Situation"

Secretary General Calls For Action

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has called on world leaders to take "emergency action" to prevent further melting of the Antarctic polar ice caps.

Mr. Ban was speaking from Antarctica where he is gathering information to present at a UN conference next month in Bali.

The Secretary General plans to use the Bali meetings to begin talks about replacing the Kyoto accord, which expires in 2012.

In June, G8 leaders pledged to forge a framework for a new accord by 2008.

Bold US Involvement Needed For Success

EU diplomats remain doubtful as to the overall effectiveness of the US climate change proposals.

President Bush has proposed voluntary emissions reductions but has opposed mandatory restrictions similar to the ones in the current Kyoto agreement.

UN diplomats consider these the engine for any effective accord.

EU diplomats have also expressed concerns that Mr. Bush's less ambitious proposals will draw public attention away from the more comprehensive efforts by the UN to reduce the world's carbon output.

Week in Review

**** The Iraqi government voided a contract with the Russian company LukOil to develop the West Qurna oil field. The contract, canceled once during the Saddam era, had had dubious merits.

**** Shares of PetroChina nearly tripled during its first day of trading on the Shanghai market. The company's resulting market cap of more than $1 trillion flamed concerns about an asset bubble in the Chinese stock market.

**** The Russian lower parliament voted 418 - 0 to withdraw Russia from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). Putin and the upper house are expected to fully ratify the measure by December 12.

**** China's National Development and Reform Center (NDRC) issued a new enforcement guide that will advise Chinese officials to restrict foreign investment in several industries and welcome it in sectors where China stands to gain technological know-how.

Russia Nears Withdraw From Arms Treaty

Duma Votes Unanimously to Suspend CFE

The Russian lower parliament has voted 418-0 to suspend the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

The law must be passed by upper parliament and ratified by President Putin before it can come into effect on December 12.

It is expected to do both.

The treaty is considered a keystone of post-Cold war security.

It limits the number of tanks, helicopters and other conventional weapons along the borders between Russian and Eastern Europe.

The restrictions are designed to prevent surprise attacks.

Russian Assertive Foreign Policy

Russian foreign policy has been marked by blunt displays of power over the past several months.

Early this summer Russian bombers began Cold War style patrols near British and Norwegian air space.

The Russian military detonated what it called the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in history ("Father of All Bombs") several months later.

President Putin recently announced on national television that he will re-vamp the Russian nuclear arsenal.

The Break Between Russia and the West

The assertive foreign policy has created a widening distance between Russia and the West.

Internal EU documents uncovered in October showed that EU politicians considered labeling Russia an "opponent" ahead of the EU-Russia summit at the end of the month.

Last week the French and German foreign ministers warned in a joint letter to European newspapers that a Russian withdraw from the CFE might provoke an arms race.

European angst crystallized on Wednesday when the European Council on Foreign Relations released a report that called Russia an "ideological alternative" to Europe whose foreign policy was "motivated by a quest for power, independence and control."

Russia Loses Iraqi Oil Contract

Iraqis Nix Saddam-Era Deal

The Iraqi government has voided a contract with the Russian company LukOil to develop the West Qurna oil field.

The field is estimated to hold 11 million barrels of untapped reserves.

The contract was signed in 2002 while Saddam Hussein was still in power.

It was then rescinded by the Hussein government shortly before the American invasion.

Mr. Hussein had been angered that LukOil brokered agreements with opposition groups in the event that his regime might fall.

The Russian government has called the decision an "outrage."

Energy, Politics and Russian Nationalization

There has been growing concern in the West about the role of state-run energy companies in serving the Kremlin's political interest.

In August, the Kremlin leveraged the last independent oil entrepreneur, Mikhail Gutseriev, out of the country and swallowed up RussNeft, a company that represented a mere 3% of the Russian oil production market.

Last October the state-run gas monopoly GazProm suddenly announced an unpaid $1.3 billion Ukrainian debt and threatened to cut off Ukrainian gas supplies.

The surprise debt was announced the day after after pro-West parties triumphed in Ukrainian parliamentary elections.

Week in Review

  **** The previous week's Russia-EU summit ended with unresolved disputes over Russian investment in the EU energy markets and the planned US missile shield in central Europe.

**** In a joint letter published in French and German newspapers, the French and German foreign ministers warned that a Russia's planned withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) may provoke an arms race.

The ministers referred to the "specter of a new Cold War."

**** Russia placed restrictions on the number of international monitors it would allow into the country to observe the December parliamentary elections. The monitoring agencies called the move "unprecedented."

**** The Chinese company TEDA reached an agreement with Egypt to build an industrial zone near Suez that is expected to pull in $2.5 billion in Chinese investment.

The deal is another tie forged in a growing economic partnership between the two nations.

China and Egypt in $2.5 Billion Deal

Chinese Company to Manage Industrial Park Near Suez

China has reached an agreement with Egypt to set up an industrial zone near Suez that is expected to attract $2.5 billion in Chinese investment.

The park will be managed, financed and developed by the Chinese company TEDA.

TEDA will develop the zone over the next ten years and combine a range of industries including textiles, electronics and auto parts.

Egyptian Reforms

The industrial zone deal is part of the Egypt's larger goal of attracting more foreign direct investment into the country.

Egypt has cut its corporate tax rates from 40% to 20% over the past two years and lowered its customs charges from an average of 15% to 7%.

These reforms coupled with others have had their intended effect.

Egypt attracted a record $6.1 billion in foreign investment during the last fiscal year.

This year's number is expected to top $10 billion.

China and Egypt

The industrial park deal is another piece of what seems the beginning of a win-win partnership between Egypt and China.

Egypt is seen as a base for Chinese production of exports to Europe -- a market Chinese companies surely have their eyes on.

In return Egypt gets the infrastructure development that comes along with cheap and abundant Chinese capital.

China recently gave $200 million dollars in soft loans to Egyptian companies who purchased production lines and other equipment from China.

Egyptian politicians have hailed the deals and called for more.

Russia To Stifle Election Monitoring

Russia In Bold, Unprecedented Step to Limit Election Monitors

The head of the Russian Central Electoral Commission has announced that Russia will limit the number of international election monitors at December parliamentary elections.

The commission sent out invitations to the various election groups on Tuesday.

Letters from the commission restrict the monitoring staffs to 300 - 400.

The number is small by comparison to the 1,165 officials that monitored Russian parliamentary elections in 2003.

A spokeswoman for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) called the restrictions proposed by Russia "unprecedented."

Invitations are normally without special restrictions, leaving the monitoring groups to decide on the number of staff needed for effective monitoring.

Not Quite Democracy

Despite public declarations by Russian leaders that Russia is a "sovereign democracy," Western politicians have grown increasingly concerned about the authoritarian realities of Russian politics.

Media content is controlled largely by the Kremlin and only the United Russia party receives significant, positive coverage.

United Russia also happens to have an overwhelming majority in the Russian parliament.

The party's popularity was recently buoyed when President Putin (a co-founder) announced he planned to head the party's candidate list this December.

Few doubt Mr. Putin is poised to use the upcoming elections as a stepping stone to the post of prime minister.

The move will put him in position to preserve his power after he steps down from the presidency in 2008.

Experts have speculated that the December 2007 elections may give United Russia a crucial two-thirds majority in the Russian parliament.

This would give the party (and the new prime minister) the power to make "legal" changes to the constitution.